Pharmaceutical drug manufacturers are rapidly accepting the crucial role of forecasting in running a business and delivering treatments to patients effectively. Forecasting reduces uncertainties in a drug life cycle and supports better supply planning to meet consumer demands. A full-fledged forecast model paves the way to better decisions on product development and production capacity. However, the lack of accurate forethought can lead to potentially unfortunate consequences. A successful forecast model built on transparency, comprehensibility, flexibility, and customization can avoid such circumstances.

TRANSPERANCY

A successful forecast model depends on the number of stakeholders involved and the depth of knowledge shared among them. Clarity on the requirements is vital for the third parties who do the market research and develop the forecast model when a pharmaceutical company outsources these tasks. It is not easy to develop a seamless model unless the delivery team understands the requirements thoroughly.

COMPREHENSIBILITY 

A successful forecast model is built on a broad framework applicable for a wide range of scenarios, thus creating approaches and methods to address many problems. A broader view via a model not only identifies unexpected problems but also suggests solutions to overcome them. A comprehensive forecast model creates and identifies a range of potential problems beforehand which can be addressed by different interventions such as visualization.

FLEXIBILITY

Forecasting accuracy is generally challenged by uncertainties around key assumptions when risk is an inherent part of the business and predicting the future is difficult. It is critical to developing an accurate forecast model, especially for strategic planning, and to modify or alter assumptions based on the changing market conditions. It is necessary to understand the trends, opportunities, and restraints, and develop the model accordingly to make the forecasting process more realistic and accurate. The future demand for products is predicted with a realistic market view and product potential. A forecast model must reflect the business as a strategic planning tool and must communicate the right information with the right level of confidence and accuracy. Forecast models must be built with the future in the mind so that methodologies need not change once the goal is achieved.

CUSTOMIZATION

A successful forecast model must be tailored to address the unique needs of different stakeholders. A forecast model must be developed as per product types, therapy areas, treatment patterns, disease areas, countries/regions, etc. so that it meets most client needs. This avoids unnecessary complexities in the model and overcomes specific forecasting challenges.  Every business has its distinctive processes and ways to use forecast data. Forecasting experts must identify each business unit’s way of working and craft the forecasting model specific to the ways of functioning and business needs. A user-friendly and robust model is always welcoming for users.

Pharmaceutical companies cannot complete business planning without forecasts. Maintaining a balance among the above-mentioned components is fundamental to develop a forecast model. Such forecast models help pharmaceutical companies to design better strategies and head in the right direction. Forecast models are thus major support mechanisms imperative to the ultimate aim of launching effective drugs and saving lives.

Author

Sharayu

Sr. Business Analyst


Foresee the market evolution and the opportunity that exists for your product to make effective business decisions through phamax’ forecasting service. From predicting overall revenue to understanding the crucial details about physician preferences, making relevant assumptions on the market trends, phamax robust models help you have a detailed insight for better business planning.

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